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Pop quiz! What do you do when you’re staring down a pile of winter assessment data?
a) run away
b) procrastinate on social media
c) allow Read Naturally to help you
d) all of the above

We’ll count both c and d as correct. Procrastinate a little if you must, but we hope the tips and resources in this blog post will make you eager to jump right in.

One of our favorite things to do with winter assessment data is to determine students’ average weekly improvement (AWI) between fall and winter. This week-by-week progress can be compared to normed AWI statistics to reveal whether your students are on track to reach their fluency goals. 

To determine your students’ AWI, simply subtract the fall assessment score from the winter assessment score, and divide that number by the number of weeks between assessments. Next, refer to the AWI column in the chart below. This shows the AWI for students based on the Hasbrouck & Tindal oral reading fluency norms*. Find the number closest to the student’s first WCPM score for the year in the chart; then compare the student’s AWI to the AWI in that row. Keep in mind that if the student is at a lower performance level, you want the student to exceed the AWI gains listed in the chart in order to move to a higher performance level.

2017 Oral Reading Fluency Norms
 Printable version of the 2017 chart

Grade	Percentile	Fall WCPM*	Winter WCPM*	Spring WCPM*	Avg. Weekly Improvement**
1	90 75 50 25 10	– – – – –	97 59 29 16 9	116 91 60 34 18	1.2 2.0 1.9 1.1 0.5
2	90 75 50 25 10	111 84 50 36 23	131 109 84 59 35	148 124 100 72 43	1.2 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.6
3	90 75 50 25 10	134 104 83 59 40	161 137 97 79 62	166 139 112 91 63	1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.7
4	90 75 50 25 10	153 125 94 75 60	168 143 120 95 71	184 160 133 105 83	1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7
5	90 75 50 25 10	179 153 121 87 64	183 160 133 109 84	195 169 146 119 102	0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.9
6	90 75 50 25 10	185 159 132 112 89	195 166 145 116 91	204 173 146 122 91	0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1

*The Hasbrouck-Tindal oral reading fluency charts show the oral reading fluency norms of students as determined by data collected by Jan Hasbrouck and Gerald Tindal. Teachers can use these charts to draw conclusions and make decisions about the oral reading fluency of their students.
*WCPM = Words Correct Per Minute

Note that the 2017 Hasbrouck-Tindal chart shows oral reading fluency norms for students in grades 1–6. For oral reading fluency norms for students in grades 7 & 8, access the 2006 chart.

In addition to calculating AWI, it is useful to use fall and winter assessment data to set spring targets. Some school districts have predetermined spring targets for students, but many teachers set these targets themselves. To set a spring target for an individual student, follow these steps:

1. Determine how many words correct per minute (WCPM) you expect your student to gain each week. Use the AWI chart as a guide, but keep in mind that the AWI column shows how your student must perform to stay at the same percentile ranking. If your student is at a low WCPM, you want the student to exceed the gains in the AWI column in order to move to a higher percentile ranking.
2. Multiply this number by the number of weeks between the fall and spring or winter and spring assessments.
3. Add the number you calculated in step 2 to the student’s score on the fall or winter assessment. This number is the student’s target for the spring assessment. 
4. To make sure the student is working toward grade-level proficiency, compare the number you calculated in step 3 to the long-term benchmark goal for the student according to the Hasbrouck-Tindal Oral Reading Fluency Norms. The student’s long-term benchmark goal is to read unpracticed, grade-level material accurately, expressively, with understanding, and at a rate that is at least at the 50th percentile of national norms.

Consider the following example. Let’s say there are 34 weeks between the fall assessment and the planned spring assessment. Your student’s fall assessment score is 63 WCPM, and you expect him to gain 1.2 WCPM per week. To set his spring target, multiply 1.2 by 34, and round to the nearest whole number to get 41. This number indicates that you can expect a growth of 41 WCPM between the fall and spring assessments. To set the spring target, add 41 to the fall assessment score of 63. This student’s spring target is 104 WCPM. If the student is in first, second, or third grade, this is an acceptable spring target as shown by the spring WCPM scores on the Hasbrouck-Tindal chart. It may also be an acceptable spring target for students in higher grades, because weekly improvement gains are typically less than 1.2 words per week in grades three through eight. Some students need more than one year of fluency training before reaching grade-level proficiency, even if they are making good AWI gains.

We hope this year’s winter assessment data illuminates a bright path forward if your students keep up their hard work. If you’re not seeing the progress you expected, we are here to help you troubleshoot. And if your students are making impressive gains, we’d love to hear about it. Send us an email with their success stories!